Monday Memo #86: COVID Testing Rates Fall Drastically in California, Posing Potential Risks
By Noah Howard and Jackson Vachal
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COVID Testing Rates Fall Drastically in California, Posing Potential Risks
On January 4th, 477,718 Californians were tested for COVID-19, representing the peak of the state’s testing scheme. Three months later, on March 31st, only 186,112 tests were conducted in California. This 60% decline has public health experts worried about ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus, track new virus variants, and monitor vaccine effectiveness. The statewide decline in testing rates is mirrored in Bay Area counties, including Stanford’s Santa Clara County, where the number of tests has decreased by 30% over the past three months. As the state’s vaccination scheme ramps up, a combination of declining public concern and burnout after a year in lockdown have combined to drive down testing frequency. Despite rising vaccination rates, coronavirus variants are proliferating and the number of infections caused by these variants has increased slightly in recent days. A British mutation called B.1.427 has been identified in 980 cases over the past week, compared to 851 the week before. Similarly, the number of cases caused by two variants discovered in California has risen from 9,000 to 12,500 over the previous two weeks. Cases tied to other mutations, which have displayed resistance to vaccines or therapeutic treatment, have also risen modestly.
A broader cause for concern is that declining testing rates may mean that new cases – regardless of viral mutation – are being undercounted. According to Stanford Medical School professor Dr. Gary Schoolnik, an infectious disease expert, “Without population-based testing for public health surveillance purposes, it’s like flying blind.” As California’s vaccination scheme continues, and the state’s plans for a June reopening proceed, a consistent and robust testing program will be vital to understanding how long vaccine-induced immunity lasts and how it is affected by the growing number of virus variants. To stay abreast of new developments, the state has put significant resources into a genomic sequencing program that aims to sequence between 2% and 5% of positive testing samples statewide. The ongoing effectiveness of this data-driven program will depend on a reinvigorated push for regular testing.
Can the U.S. Cooperate with Russia?
In mid-March, Joe Biden issued one of the most provocative statements of his presidency, unequivocally calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a killer and warning him that he will “pay a price” for Russian interference in the 2020 U.S. election. Commenting on this continued deterioration in relations, Steven Pifer (’76), former ambassador to the Ukraine and current affiliate at the Freeman Spogli Institute’s Europe Center, describes Biden’s accusation and Putin’s response as no serious barrier to US-Russia cooperation. Pifer points to similar dark episodes in Russia-US relations such as when Ronald Reagan described the USSR as an “evil empire” and its leaders as autocrats. Even during this time, Pifer notes, US and Soviet leadership were able to meaningfully cooperate on a host of issues of joint concern, especially regarding nuclear weapons. Similarly, on issues where the United States and Russia are at odds, such as in Ukraine, Pifer advises that the US take a proactive rather than reactive approach. This entails the United States working with its allies to present Russian leadership with a credible deterrent if it chooses to continue the conflict in Ukraine. One method Pifer advocates is creating a list of substantive sanctions that would hurt vital sectors of the Russian economy and its interests and providing a copy of this to Russian officials so as to make abundantly clear that the costs of escalation will be far greater than its gains.
Stanford Study Suggests Geotracking, An Important Pandemic Resource, Underrepresents Vulnerable Populations
Throughout the pandemic, location data from smartphones has been a vital source of information for public health agencies. It has helped public health officials make decisions about public gathering policies, informed testing rollouts, and influenced public vaccination schemes. However, a recent study conducted by researchers at Stanford and Carnegie Mellon University suggests that smartphone data may underrepresent elderly and nonwhite populations, groups that have been hardest-hit by the coronavirus. Essentially, these groups are less likely to carry smartphones that track their movements than younger white populations, skewing mobile location data away from the populations for whom the pandemic has been deadliest. The Stanford-CMU study compared 2018 voter demographic data from North Carolina polling places to smartphone location data from the firm SafeGraph from election day 2018. The researchers found that polling places serving larger proportions of older and nonwhite voters were underrepresented by the smartphone location data. SafeGraph’s data is used by more than 1,000 organizations, ranging from academic institutions to nonprofits to public health agencies. Stanford professor Daniel Ho, a study author, told the Wall Street Journal that the underrepresentation of vulnerable populations in mobile location data, “has pretty significant implications in the ways in which this data and artificial-intelligence systems trained on top of it are used to inform pandemic response.” Though this data is only one of a variety of methods being used to plan public health policy, Ho pointed out, adjusting for bias in the data is vital to provide effective and equitable coronavirus policies going forward.
And in case you missed it…
Herd Immunity Probably Not Necessary to End Pandemic, Experts Say (Turk | Stanford Daily)
Under Cover of COVID, Poland is Stifling Free Media - And All Europe Should be Worried (Ash | The Guardian)
YouTube says it’s getting better at taking down videos that break its rules. They still number in the millions. (De Vynck | Washington Post)
Selective De-Policing: Stanford Law Team Proposes New Routes to Public Safety in Racially Diverse Communities (Driscoll | Stanford Law School)
About the Authors
Noah Howard ’22 is pursuing majors in Economics and International Relations with a minor in Iranian Studies. Living in Washington D.C., he is currently writing a thesis about the role of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in Iranian Politics.
Jackson Vachal ’22 is pursuing majors in Political Science and Philosophy, with a focus on democratic theory. A San Francisco native, he is interested in social entrepreneurship and nonprofit advocacy work.